In Japan, till September 3rd, three candidates for the head of the Liberal Democratic Party have been announced. I would like to conduct a sort of comparison in their policies and impact on real estate investment especially for non-Japanese investors.
Directions to be shared
As is conditions will be maintained
100% of free hold title to non-Japanese owners will remain secured. Already established structures, GK-TK, and TMK, by which non-Japanese overseas investor pass through the profit from the real estate investment to their tax haven account, will be no change. No further unexpected restriction would be imposed on the current regulations.
Differences brought by each candidate
1 Chinese investors’ real estate investment
As Kishida’s supporter group has been close to China, his policy might provide more freedom to those investors. Especially for forest or mountains linked to water reservoirs may be protected from diplomatic view point. Ishiba is famous for his military knowledge and war tactics, furthermore, he mentioned that localization is one of the targets he aims at. Thus Ishiba’s governance would be more reliable than those of other two.
2 Economic policy
If the Japanese economy goes into another recession following the COVID-19 pandemic, Ishiba doesn’t put much importance on monetary policy than does on fiscal policy. In the sense that following Abe’s direction, Suga seems to be a reliable leader in terms of policy mix in both monetary as well as fiscal, as Suga has been maintaining good relations with several different parties in both domestic and international.
3 Boost in Tourism
Under Abenomics policy, pushing up the tourism in Japan and inviting many inbound tourists had been successful, as we have seen a lot of inbound benefits in Japan nationwide. However, we are not sure how long this COVID influence lasts and if the inbound tourism would be the economic driver again or not. In the sense that following Abe’s direction, we can expect Suga most and probably Kishida as well, as Kishida probably start accepting Chinese as well as other Asian tourists again as early as possible. If we are concerned about the recession caused by the inbound tourism collapse, policies under Kishida and Suga may well support the inbound tourism recovery.
4 Japanese capability
Getting back to the fundamental issue of the politics, I have personally been thinking of what the most important thing for us Japanese. From my point of view, this is simply pushing up each of us Japanse’ capability as a global resource. Each one has to have the fundamental capability of surviving under such VURCA era. For us to do, the education, information technology, and open resources are very important. In that sense, who I feel the most sensitive and diligent in terms of such education may be Suga as he presumably has had as much information as possible from various resources.
5 Conclusion
As the follower of Abe, among three candidates, Suga would be the best in real estate investment view point as well as Japanese prosperity.
Further queries or doubts, please email to ytomizuka@abrilsjp.com
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