IPO prediction-Keep simulating until you get clear image-

Under the above title, Inamori demonstrated how important it is to train simulation. What he said is quoted with “”.

“In the business administration, we, leaders, must reach the height where we can see the final outcome of our work. At first, it was just a dream or a desire, but when you seriously repeat this simulation many times in your brain, eventually the boundary between the imagination and the reality disappears, and you feel like as if you conduct and complete the project that you’ve got involved. You will gradually gain confidence that you can do that, even though you have never tried. This is what I call the “visible” stage. Unless you think deeply till everything gets “visible”, you will not be able to complete unprecedented, creative, or even quite difficult work with various obstacles. “

For us to achieve the “visible” stage, I feel the following two aspects are needed.

1 variety of experience-understanding yourself-
2 psychological analysis-understanding opponents-

Let me elaborate one by one.

1 variety of experience-understanding yourself-

“During the ‘simulation’, you should think all the possible problems in your mind. (When a potential client gave Kyocera a research theme), instead of just leaving the research to the team head, I was always thinking about the research theme in my mind. I didn’t do the actual experiments, but I was repeating the experiment as a simulation in my mind. Day after day, repeating the simulations, I began to feel as if the experiment had been successful, and I even had a clear picture of the finished product in my image. Funny enough, the clear image started appearing in my mind. This is the “visible” stage. . . .Pay attention guys, it is not enough to see the results in “black and white” image, and if it cannot be seen clearly in “color”, it is not enough, you should think and think again in your mind. If you think it thoroughly, you will surely succeed, not only in research and development, but also in various kinds of businesses.”

→In order to repeat the experiment in my mind, I thought that I must conduct the experiments many times. I thought that I would repeat the simulation based on what I experienced and what I could imagine from it. Therefore, I thought it was important for the leader to gain real-world experience.

2 Psychological analysis-understanding others-

Mr. Inamori shared his experience on how to develop KDDI, the second largest tele communication company in Japan.

“Mr. Moriyama (President of KDDI) wondered if he could really compete with NTT, the giant of the arena of tele-communication. I took him out for drinks and encouraged him.
‘Moriyama , listen, as the next stage, the arena changes following, then the competition big picture would shift to the second stage, then finally the arena would be transformed into the third stage. This is the time that the KDDI goes to IPO. ‘
However, Mr. Moriyama was not convinced with what I explained.
‘ I am totally skeptic what you said, chairman Inamori. You mentioned the story as if you went through, but I don’t think everything goes easily as you said. The reality has remained quite tough to KDDI!!‘
Even if he complained, I kept convincing him,
” No,no, Moriyama, believe me, everything should follow the pattern that I have explained you. “
“How come you can be so optimistic, Inamori?”

Moriyama never understood what the outcome of my simulation however, the KDDI actually and precisely developed as I envisaged. My simulation was so elaborated as “visible”, I had been so confident even the timing of KDDI’s IPO. The size of the company, the sales, the progress, and the timing of the listing had been exactly matched with what I simulated. I even felt terrified about my simulation. It was an unprecedented case in which the private company challenged a state-owned giant entity with long lasting history. Thus, again, thinking and simulating until visible was the fundamental reason why KDDI succeeded.”

→ I think the key is anticipating the series of reactions that your competitors would demonstrate. In other words, reading minds of your competitors is so important. This allows you to come up with countermeasures and plan B under contingencies. For us to do that, I think it’s necessary to think about the opponent’s psychology and simulate the future game strategy like chess.

In summary, you need simulation to make the project succeeded. For you to do this, you should accumulate actual experience in real world as well as learn people’s behavior, psychologies, and what drive people. Aikido and other Japanese martial arts can cultivate these skills. In addition to actual management experience, I would like to develop my insights via such various tools.